MBW Explains is a series of analytical features in which we explore the context behind major music industry talking points – and suggest what might happen next. Only MBW+ subscribers have unlimited access to these articles.
The following MBW Explains article was written by Will Page (pictured inset), the author of Pivot: Eight Principles for Transforming Your Business and the former Chief Economist for both Spotify and PRS for Music. He is a regular contributor to MBW. You can find out more about him and his work here. Over to Will..
Over 1.5 million will see Oasis perform this summer — that’s comparable to the combined populations of Manchester, (where they’re from), Glasgow (where they got signed) and Edinburgh — where my older brother watched them perform for just £4 in 1994.
Inflation, huh?
Ask those 1.5 million Oasis fans who successfully queued online (or the millions who weren’t so lucky) what their favourite song is, and you can expect a range of responses. Sure, Wonderwall will be up there, but so too will a lot of others. For me, it’s “She’s Electric” as I’ll never forget the time I walked into a Tesco’s late one winter night and witnessed staff and customers spontaneously sing along with it.
Oasis’s catalog reminds me of a lesson that Neil Finn of Crowded House once said, which is that: “Music is the alchemy in the room that draws us all together” — we’re witnessing how the Gallagher brothers can do just that — be it soulless Tesco’s or sold-out stadiums.
And it’s not just one-or-two songs that brings us together, it’s a body of work.
Which brings us to the long tail. Chris Anderson popularized the long tail in a seminal 2004 blog, showing how a small number of items make up a large amount of sales (e.g. the front of a book store will stack ‘em high and sell ‘em cheap).
Therefore, a large amount of niche items make up a small amount of sales (e.g. the back of the bookstore). This is where us economists grab red pens and descend towards a white board to draw this:
Long-tail distributions can be found in recordings. Typically, the top three ‘killer’ songs of an album (i.e. singles) can make up 97% of their streams, meaning the ‘filler’ songs make up only 3%.
Think about this as an ‘organic greatest hits’ where the consumer, not the creator, decides what merits inclusion into the head of the distribution, and what gets left in the tail.
But here’s the twist. Oasis has a long tail, but on this occasion, that tail is fat.
Now, data scientists listen up.
The best way to illustrate this fat tail is not the classic down-and-to-the-right long tail chart but a ‘rotated waterfall’.
To do this, I pulled a year’s worth of Oasis global audio and video streams on Luminate’s impressive new dashboard and stacked the stream share of each song from their 188-strong catalog. Wonderwall grabbed 23% of all streams, followed by Don’t Look Back in Anger (14%) then Stop Crying Your Heart Out (8%).
All in all, their top five songs make up only half of demand. Stretch it out further, and their top ten songs make up only 70% of demand, meaning the other 100+ songs down in the long tail make up 30%. That’s a lot of hits and a fat tail to boot.
That ‘fat tail’ is what those two brothers can be proud of — their fans, old and new, demonstrate an appreciation for a genuine body of work. Ralph Simon, the Zelig of the music business, is quick to point out that the band now occupy three of the top four positions in the UK album chart — “not the first time this has happened” reflects Simon.
Whataboutisms?
That fat tail would fizzle out if we didn’t have context and comparisons. Jaime Marconette at Luminate gives us context, noting that when Oasis announced their reunion last year, the explosion in streams propelled their global artist rank on Luminate from #400 to #40.
For comparisons, ChartMetric’s Related Artist tees up Blur and The Verve. Blur are more hit heavy, with Song 2, Girls & Boys and Parklife making up just under two-thirds of all streams.
The Verve is dominated by Bitter Sweet Symphony, with Lucky Man and Sonnet added to their podium.
Oasis have a long and very fat tail in absolute and relative terms. Their fans are streaming the many, not the few. Which begs the question why?
One explanation is that Oasis are a scene, not a band. They embody a culture that resonates across generations, from late baby-boomers, Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z’ers. Their fans copied Gallagher’s hairstyle back then, and baldness permitting, they’ll likely do so now. The same can’t be said for Damon Alburn’s haircut, nor Richard Ashcroft’s parker jacket — neither then nor now.
Another is that their music feels impervious to virality — their catalog hasn’t produced a breakout hit on TikTok yet. What is going viral is intimate conversations between (and in between) the two brothers, recalling hilarious stories from yesteryear, such as the infamous fork in the champagne tale. Another unusual source of virality is FOMO content: fans gathering for free outside the fence on Gallagher Hill to sing along with those who queued for hours to pay. Intimacy, again.
“Words like ‘timeless’ and ‘seminal’ are often bandied about in the music industry, but there are few bands out there who can truly walk the walk. Oasis is one of them.”
Dan Chalmers, YouTube
Last word to Dan Chalmers, Head Of Music, YouTube, EMEA who reflected on his recent pilgrimage to Manchester’s Heaton Park: “Words like ‘timeless’ and ‘seminal’ are often bandied about in the music industry, but there are few bands out there who can truly walk the walk.
“Oasis is one of them. They’ve successfully crossed over to a new generation in the post-digital era, where the depth and breadth of consumption across their catalog underscores their rightful place as master craftsmen of enduring music”.
Reservoir (Nasdaq: RSVR) is a publicly traded, global independent music company with operations across music publishing, recorded music, and artist management.Music Business Worldwide
